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We�ve survived the tech bubble and the housing bubble, but are we headed for something more catastrophic than either of those?� Some experts are beginning to fear the worst.<br><br>Let�s review recent financial events. The meltdown in the global financial markets created a wave of panic and a surge of money has poured into what has always been considered safe�short-term U.S. Treasury securities.� This basically means that investors are willing to put faith in and lend money to the government.� Primarily because, even though our national debt stands at staggering $10.59 trillion, and is still growing, the U.S. has never failed to meet a debt payment. This sudden appetite for Treasuries has driven yields down to their lowest levels since the Great Depression. <br><br>Over the past couple of months, the Feds have funneled massive amounts into bailout packages upsetting the government�s balance sheet.� When you add a soaring U.S. deficit into the mix, you get a situation that�s causing sleepless nights for anyone that�s paying attention.<br><br>How Low Can They Go?<br><br>We�ve been waiting to see just how low interest rates on Treasury securities could go before the rapid stream of investments would dry up.It now appears that even zero is not too low. One day during the second week of December, the annualized yield on three-month T-bills in the secondary market hit the minus zero level, down to negative 0.01%, then later that same day it rose to positive 0.01%.<br><br>This means that investors are so fearful of the markets, but still have enough faith that the U.S. government, they are willing to risk getting less money upon maturity than they originally invested, and earn no interest along the way. <br><br>The Treasury hasn't had to auction new T-bills at a negative rate yet, but on December 8, they actually sold $30 billion in four-week T-bills at a yield of exactly zero. Anyone who bought those can sell them in four weeks, but not for one penny more than they paid for them. At that rate, you could have just as easily stuffed a fistful of $100 bills into a coffee can and buried it in the back yard.<br><br>You might be wondering who would be willing to buy Treasury debt for little or no return?� It turns out that there were plenty lined up to buy�some who probably no longer have back yards�so many in fact that the Feds reportedly could have sold up to four times as much as they did. Actually, while there are plenty of individual investors, it�s the big institutional investors like pension funds, and international central banks that are the biggest players in the market for Treasury securities.<br><br>How Long Can it Last?<br><br>There is so much money shifting into Treasuries, it can�t last forever. Investors seem to be pouring money into government securities with the same fervor that they did during the housing surge and the dotcom mania. U.S. government debt has always been considered the safest investment in the world.� But now some fear the Treasury market is venturing into bubble territory.<br><br>The big question becomes, �How long can it last?�� Were a bubble of this size to implode, there wouldn�t be enough sand bags in the world to stop the flood of money that would come gushing out. When the torrent was over, there would be so little left in the Treasury coffers, the government would be forced to pay higher rates on their burgeoning debt. <br><br>Our Foreign Debt Holders<br><br>�If such a day of reckoning is coming, it would be a devastating blow to the economy, and the dollar.� At the first sign of the stock market entering a sustained period of recovery, investors would shy away from low-yield Treasuries. The Fed could then be forced to monetize Treasury securities, or else boost the rates higher. <br><br>But China and other foreign countries hold a major chunk of U. If you are you looking for more on bubble shooter pet review the website. S. debt. In fact, about half of the nation's $5.3 trillion in publicly traded debt is held by countries like Japan and China. That means a significant down shift in Treasury prices would lead to the decline of the US dollar, a threat of hyper-inflation and finally, a depression.<br><br>And yet, even though the U.S. has the dubious distinction of having kicked off the firestorm of global economic meltdown, our government bonds are still considered the safest investments in the world.<br><br>What�s in Store?<br><br>Just like we all thought that the price of homes could only go up, we now know that it�s that kind of irrational exuberance that blind us what�s coming.��Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer recently commented on CNBC, "There's more risk in things people think are inherently safe, including cash and Treasuries, vs. the things people perceive as risky." <br><br>It appears that even though Treasury yields are at an all time low, even institutional investors are more concerned about preserving capital than they are in getting higher returns. Treasury interest rates are already at or near zero. <br><br>If things get worse, and they slip further into negative return territory, would investors actually be willing to pay the government to hold their money for safe keeping?� So far, there is no indication that things will get that dire. Although, since none of the rules we�ve lived by these past few decades seem to apply anymore, we can�t speculate on the future. <br><br>We think that Treasury interest rates will probably remain low until some time mid-2009, or at least until the recession begins to lighten up.� If the skittish market keeps the fear factor alive, people will keep moving money into the Treasury for safekeeping, low interest rates or not.
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By Jemima Kelly<br><br>LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Bitcoin and other "cryptocurrencies" are big money, virtually as big as Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank of Scotland combined.<br><br>The price of a single bitcoin hit an all-time high of above $3,500 this week, dragging up the value of hundreds of newer, smaller digital rivals in its wake. Now some investors fear a giant crypto-bubble may be about to burst.<br><br>It has been a year of unprecedented growth for the largely unregulated market, with dozens of new currencies appearing every month in "Initial Coin Offerings" or ICOs. They have achieved value almost instantly, drawing in those who are eager to get in and make a quick buck.<br><br>At the start of 2017, the total value - or market cap - of all cryptocurrencies in existence was about $17.5 billion, with bitcoin making up almost 90 percent of that, according to industry data firm CoinMarketCap.<br><br>It is now around $120 billion - around the same value as Goldman and RBS together - and bitcoin makes up only 46 percent.<br><br>Bitcoin Cash, a clone of bitcoin that was split off from the original last week by a rival group of developers, was valued at more than $12 billion less than 24 hours after it had started trading.<br><br>"It's just created new value out of nowhere," said Rob Moffat, a partner at Balderton Capital, a London-based venture capital firm who focuses on fintech. "There's no fundamentals behind any of this - it's all based on public perception, so you can start to see some really strange phenomena."<br><br>For an interactive Reuters graphic of the top cryptocurrencies, click on: website<br><br>Cryptocurrencies - so-called because cryptography is used to keep transactions secure - allow anonymous peer-to-peer transactions between individual users, without the need for banks or central banks. They use blockchain technology, a shared record-keeping and processing system that means digital money cannot be copied and spent more than once.<br><br>Billionaire U.S. investor Howard Marks likens the market to the dotcom bubble of the turn of the century - whose demise he predicted. He said in a recent investor letter that digital currencies were an "unfounded fad ... based on a willingness to ascribe value to something that has little or none beyond what people will pay for it".<br><br>But advocates of cryptocurrencies say 2017 is just the beginning of bull run. They argue the finite nature of these currency units - there will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, for example - as well as the technological innovation that underpins them will ensure their enduring value.<br><br>"The idea of this thing being a bubble is silly. We're in the bottom of the first innings," said Miguel Vias of Ripple, the third-biggest cryptocurrency, who was previously global head of precious metals and metal options at CME Group.<br><br>DASH TO ETHER<br><br>Whichever way cryptocurrencies move, they are likely to move together because their values are highly correlated, feeding off each other and magnifying the market effect.<br><br>That's partly down to investor sentiment, but also because the start-ups issuing new coins in ICOs generally collect money in a more liquid cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin or, more commonly, Ethereum's ether - the second-biggest cryptocurrency in total value.<br><br>That has driven demand for ether, which has climbed over 3,000 percent so far this year and now has a market cap of around $28 billion.<br><br>Bitcoin, which was launched in 2009, was the first successful cryptocurrency and is still easily the biggest, with a market cap of over $54 billion.<br><br>Its price has shot up around 225 percent so this year, and performed better than any conventional, central-bank issued currency in every year since 2010 bar 2014.<br><br>The blockchain-based currencies that have been built since bitcoin - 842, at last count - vary hugely in terms of their credibility.<br><br>Sceptics say bitcoin and its rivals are not particularly useful as currencies, as they are still volatile and not accepted by most merchants. They are mostly just used for speculative trading purposes.<br><br>There are some signs of acceptance of the biggest players by the establishment, however; Ethereum has been piloted by the United Nations as a way to distribute funds to Syrian refugees. Ripple has been successfully used as a payment method between settlement systems in a Bank of England trial.<br><br>Some other, smaller cryptocurrencies such as Dash, Monero and Z-cash are seen as having real value by some users because they offer an even higher level of anonymity than the likes of bitcoin. Whistle-blowing website Wikileaks this week said it would accept Z-cash for online donations.<br><br>'DARWINISM IN REAL-TIME'<br><br>It is mainly the new "token" cryptocurrencies that are issued in ICOs with no regulatory oversight, which have exploded since the start of the year, that are causing the most anxiety.<br><br>Here is more on [https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.pandakidgame.bubbleshooterpetraccoon bubble shooter pet] visit our web site. One, the "Useless Ethereum Token", which appears to have been set up as a way of showing how worthless many of the ICOs really are, is nonetheless changing hands for 3 cents a unit. "No value, no security, and no product. Just me, spending your money," its website states.<br><br>"It's just so easy to raise money on an ICO right now, it just feels like there's a gold rush going on there," said Moffat. "Some of the new currencies - beyond bitcoin and Ethereum - could crash to zero."<br><br>By mid-July, about $1.1 billion had been raised in ICOs this year, roughly 10 times more than that in the whole of 2016, according to cryptocurrency research firm Smith + Crown. (Graphic: website<br><br>The rapid ascent of ICOs prompted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to warn last month that some ICOs should be regulated like other securities.<br><br>This is new digital territory and how the rapidly proliferating cryptocurrency market will play out is anyone's guess.<br><br>While critics say the highly correlated nature of the currencies means the weakness of newer entrants could bring the whole house down; others argue market forces will ensure the best players prevail.<br><br>"Will some of these (currencies) go away? Of course," said Vias of Ripple. "We´re going to see Darwinism in real-time here. Only the strong will survive."<br><br>(Reporting by Jemima Kelly; Editing by Pravin Char)

Revision as of 12:21, 8 November 2017

By Jemima Kelly

LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Bitcoin and other "cryptocurrencies" are big money, virtually as big as Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank of Scotland combined.

The price of a single bitcoin hit an all-time high of above $3,500 this week, dragging up the value of hundreds of newer, smaller digital rivals in its wake. Now some investors fear a giant crypto-bubble may be about to burst.

It has been a year of unprecedented growth for the largely unregulated market, with dozens of new currencies appearing every month in "Initial Coin Offerings" or ICOs. They have achieved value almost instantly, drawing in those who are eager to get in and make a quick buck.

At the start of 2017, the total value - or market cap - of all cryptocurrencies in existence was about $17.5 billion, with bitcoin making up almost 90 percent of that, according to industry data firm CoinMarketCap.

It is now around $120 billion - around the same value as Goldman and RBS together - and bitcoin makes up only 46 percent.

Bitcoin Cash, a clone of bitcoin that was split off from the original last week by a rival group of developers, was valued at more than $12 billion less than 24 hours after it had started trading.

"It's just created new value out of nowhere," said Rob Moffat, a partner at Balderton Capital, a London-based venture capital firm who focuses on fintech. "There's no fundamentals behind any of this - it's all based on public perception, so you can start to see some really strange phenomena."

For an interactive Reuters graphic of the top cryptocurrencies, click on: website

Cryptocurrencies - so-called because cryptography is used to keep transactions secure - allow anonymous peer-to-peer transactions between individual users, without the need for banks or central banks. They use blockchain technology, a shared record-keeping and processing system that means digital money cannot be copied and spent more than once.

Billionaire U.S. investor Howard Marks likens the market to the dotcom bubble of the turn of the century - whose demise he predicted. He said in a recent investor letter that digital currencies were an "unfounded fad ... based on a willingness to ascribe value to something that has little or none beyond what people will pay for it".

But advocates of cryptocurrencies say 2017 is just the beginning of bull run. They argue the finite nature of these currency units - there will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, for example - as well as the technological innovation that underpins them will ensure their enduring value.

"The idea of this thing being a bubble is silly. We're in the bottom of the first innings," said Miguel Vias of Ripple, the third-biggest cryptocurrency, who was previously global head of precious metals and metal options at CME Group.

DASH TO ETHER

Whichever way cryptocurrencies move, they are likely to move together because their values are highly correlated, feeding off each other and magnifying the market effect.

That's partly down to investor sentiment, but also because the start-ups issuing new coins in ICOs generally collect money in a more liquid cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin or, more commonly, Ethereum's ether - the second-biggest cryptocurrency in total value.

That has driven demand for ether, which has climbed over 3,000 percent so far this year and now has a market cap of around $28 billion.

Bitcoin, which was launched in 2009, was the first successful cryptocurrency and is still easily the biggest, with a market cap of over $54 billion.

Its price has shot up around 225 percent so this year, and performed better than any conventional, central-bank issued currency in every year since 2010 bar 2014.

The blockchain-based currencies that have been built since bitcoin - 842, at last count - vary hugely in terms of their credibility.

Sceptics say bitcoin and its rivals are not particularly useful as currencies, as they are still volatile and not accepted by most merchants. They are mostly just used for speculative trading purposes.

There are some signs of acceptance of the biggest players by the establishment, however; Ethereum has been piloted by the United Nations as a way to distribute funds to Syrian refugees. Ripple has been successfully used as a payment method between settlement systems in a Bank of England trial.

Some other, smaller cryptocurrencies such as Dash, Monero and Z-cash are seen as having real value by some users because they offer an even higher level of anonymity than the likes of bitcoin. Whistle-blowing website Wikileaks this week said it would accept Z-cash for online donations.

'DARWINISM IN REAL-TIME'

It is mainly the new "token" cryptocurrencies that are issued in ICOs with no regulatory oversight, which have exploded since the start of the year, that are causing the most anxiety.

Here is more on bubble shooter pet visit our web site. One, the "Useless Ethereum Token", which appears to have been set up as a way of showing how worthless many of the ICOs really are, is nonetheless changing hands for 3 cents a unit. "No value, no security, and no product. Just me, spending your money," its website states.

"It's just so easy to raise money on an ICO right now, it just feels like there's a gold rush going on there," said Moffat. "Some of the new currencies - beyond bitcoin and Ethereum - could crash to zero."

By mid-July, about $1.1 billion had been raised in ICOs this year, roughly 10 times more than that in the whole of 2016, according to cryptocurrency research firm Smith + Crown. (Graphic: website

The rapid ascent of ICOs prompted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to warn last month that some ICOs should be regulated like other securities.

This is new digital territory and how the rapidly proliferating cryptocurrency market will play out is anyone's guess.

While critics say the highly correlated nature of the currencies means the weakness of newer entrants could bring the whole house down; others argue market forces will ensure the best players prevail.

"Will some of these (currencies) go away? Of course," said Vias of Ripple. "We´re going to see Darwinism in real-time here. Only the strong will survive."

(Reporting by Jemima Kelly; Editing by Pravin Char)